US President Donald Trump said during his maiden meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that never before had been the relations between Washington and New Delhi "stronger and better". He also told Modi that the US, like India, is also a victim of terror and praised the economic performance of the South Asian country.
However, even as things look positive, the question remains whether this meeting will really bring any marked difference in India-US relations, neutralising all the fears that have been generated after Trump took over as the 45th president of the US in January.
There are undoubtedly similarities between Modi and Trump as individuals – both are seen as men from outside the establishment who stormed to power riding a popular wave and both have devised their own ways of connecting to the people, bypassing the mainstream media, through social media.
But that could be all about the story between Modi and Trump and those who are expecting things will continue from where Modi and Obama had left it could face some disappointment.
The reason for saying so is that neither the Trump administration nor the Modi government showed enough urgency to take forward the NamObama legacy after the change of guard in the White House.
While Washington took stringent measures in terms of curtailing visas and stressing more on jobs for Americans and also targeted India over the Paris Climate Agreement, the Modi government also went slow on engaging with the new administration in the US. There was clearly an inertia during the transition, something which is a complete anti-thesis to what India-US relations have seen under the last few American presidencies, irrespective of the political colour.
Trump even met prime minister of Montenegro before meeting Modi; that's about 'better, stronger' relations?
Even though Trump praised his country's relation with India, the fact cannot be overlooked that he met PM Modi five months after taking over. In this time, he has met several world leaders, including the prime minister of a country like Montenegro.
Trump had even spoken to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif before taking oath and met him at the summit in Saudi Arabia held in May. Modi was the fifth head of the government with whom Trump spoke to over telephone after taking oath. If India is so significant for the US, why didn't the Trump administration showed the intent to meet PM Modi soon after taking over?
The meeting finally took place on June 26 and observers will be hoping that the India-US relationship sees an upward movement from here on but does other factors really promise acche din in India-US relations?
Strong India good for US: What's good for US not necessarily good for India
Officials in Washington have said that President Trump feels a strong India is good for the US. The thinking is old and predictable and makes little realistic sense. India and the US have come closer, especially during the presidencies of George W Bush and Barrack Obama, more because of strategic and economic reasons and not just because they both are vibrant democracies. And the Trump administration has given enough hints that both these reasons that have brought Washington and New Delhi closer, unlike what it was during the Nehruvian days, could be undermined in times ahead.
Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's call on Kashmir a warning to India's foreign policy
Note for example, the call given by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei the very day Modi met Trump. He marked the Eid-ul-Fitr prayers by appealing to the global Islamic community to condemn "oppressors who invade" innocent people, including Kashmiris, Yemenis and Bahrainians. This is not the first time that Khamenei has backed an independent Kashmir but his latest remark has come at a very crucial time.
It is a time when Kashmir is witnessing an endless cycle of violence and the mood is increasingly turning anti-New Delhi in the Valley and also Modi is in the pursuit of a better relation with the US, one of Iran's biggest critic, which has gone back to the strategy of isolating it after Obama sought to engage it with more. The Irani leader's remark will pose a major foreign policy challenge for India which has also been trying to improve relations with Iran to expand its sphere of influence and corner Pakistan strategically.
Iran also doesn't have good relations with Israel and with India gradually giving up its balanced stance vis-a-vis Israel and Palestine and tilting more in favour of the former [Modi is set to visit Tel Aviv soon], there is ample possibility of Tehran creating more headache for New Delhi by taking a firm ideological stand in the near future. How much can India afford to gain with the US if it is going to lose foreign policy advantage in its own region?
What Trump thinks about Pakistan & China? We don't know
Other strategic concerns are whether President Trump believes the same about China and Pakistan, as it was with his predecessor, giving India an assurance? Trump had lambasted China a lot during his campaign days but doesn't continue with the tirade now. With Pakistan, too, he is blowing hot and cold.
These are understandable for the US will never dump its own foreign policy interests by taking on Beijing and Islamabad just because they are not having good terms with New Delhi. Indians will feel elated with the now-and-then developments that the US has given warnings to Pakistan. But it will be unwise to expect them as permanent policies of Washington towards Islamabad since the latter is significant, more than India, for the former when it comes to dealing with the Afghanistan problem.
A hyper-nationalist US can never be good for India
Economically, too, Trump's nationalist call of 'Make America Great Again' is much likely to see the USA's interests finding themselves at odds with India's software industry. An ultra-populist leader like Trump will cater more to the demands and likings of his own countrymen instead of Indians and it would be interesting to see how the two countries arrive at a consensus on distribution of jobs even if they are created in plenty.
So, the ground reality has completely changed once Trump changed Obama's foreign policy principles that looked more in alignment with India. Now, even after the Trumps host Modi over dinner which is seen as a higher level of state respect, there is no guarantee that India's quest for a grand equation with the US will succeed, as it had when Bush and Obama were in the office.
On the contrary, India can lose more on other fronts while trying to align its priorities with the US.
