The second wave of coronavirus in India has waned, and authorities in the country have already predicted the possibility of a third wave. And now, a new study which was carried out by researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively has suggested that the third wave of the pandemic could begin this month, and it could peak by October.
Will third wave of the Covid pandemic turn deadly like the second wave?
According to the new study report, the third wave of the pandemic will not be as deadly as the second wave. During the second wave, India had witnessed more than 4,00,000 fresh coronavirus cases in a single day. However, the mathematical model used by experts who carried out this study suggests that India could witness less than 100,000 infections a day in the best-case scenario or nearly 150,000 in the worst-case scenario.
Mathukumalli Vidyasagar, in an email to Bloomberg also noted that states like Kerala and Maharashtra where coronavirus cases are rising could ''skew the picture.'' It should be noted that Kerala has been registering more than 20,000 fresh coronavirus cases over the past five days, and it indicates that the second wave of the pandemic is not over in the state. The test positivity rate (TPR) in Kerala is also above 12, which is undoubtedly a matter of concern as the nation heads towards a third wave hit.
Dire warning issued by an expert panel
Recently, a group of officials empowered with formulating the nation's pandemic emergency strategy had warned the government that the third wave of the Covid pandemic will see a drastic rise in daily cases. These experts also predicted that India could witness four to five lakh daily cases in the worst-case scenario, and if it happens, the healthcare infrastructure in the country will be crunched.
The group hence has set a warning level of 50,000 new coronavirus cases a day with the recommendation that the count does not go any further. The group had also urged the government to ramp the vaccination campaign to reduce the number of fatalities and Covid-related hospitalizations.
