The second wave of Covid in India has started showing signs of slowing down, and several states are slowly lifting the lockdown restrictions. However, medical experts believe that it is not a time to relax as a third wave of the pandemic could hit the country anytime soon. And now, a study conducted by IIT Kanpur has suggested that the third wave of coronavirus could hit India either in September or October.
An inevitable third wave to hit India
During the study, Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma constructed three possible scenarios using the epidemic parameters observed during the second wave of the pandemic. The results revealed that the third wave of the Covid pandemic is inevitable in the country, but its severity could vary from the second wave.
"We assume that India is fully unlocked on 15 July. Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal): Third-wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September). Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict social distancing. Here, the peak will be lower than the second wave," said the study team.
The study report also noted that the daily test positivity rate (TPR) in states like Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, and Meghalaya is above 10 percent, which they consider a matter of concern.
"At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. The revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out," added the researchers.
Dire warning issued by AIIMS director
A few days back, AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria had also issued a similar warning, and he predicted that the third wave of Covid could hit the country within six to eight weeks.
The expert revealed that the hesitancy of Indians to practice Covid safety protocols could be the reason behind the trigger of the coronavirus third wave.
"As we have started unlocking, there is again a lack of Covid-appropriate behavior. We don't seem to have learned from what happened between the first and the second wave. Again crowds are building up, people are gathering. It will take some time for the number of cases to start rising at the national level. The third wave is inevitable and it could hit the country within the next six to eight weeks, maybe a little longer," said Guleria.
