Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Tauktae" to hit Gujarat Monday evening, evacuation underway

The National Weather Forecasting Centre of the Meteorological Department said the Very Severe Cyclonic Storm "Tauktae" (pronounced Tau'Te) is gathering momentum and lay around 350 kilometres away from Gujarat.

The weather forecast said Tauktae is likely to hit Porbandar between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. The Gujarat administration has already evacuated around 1 lakh people from the coastal areas, said Gujarat Additional Chief Secretary (ACS), revenue department, Pankaj Kumar. So far, 95,485 people from 655 low lying and coastal areas have been shifted to safer places, he said.

"To tackle the possibility of the cyclone and its effect, 240 teams from the forest department have been deployed, as well as 242 teams from the Roads and Building (R&B) department have also been deployed," Pankaj Kumar said.

"To resurrect the damaged power lines, 661 teams from power companies have been deployed. Besides, 388 health department teams and 319 revenue officials teams have also been deployed to tackle the possible crisis," added Kumar.

A total of 41 National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams have been deployed in the state besides 10 teams from the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), he informed. "Looking at the prevailing Corona outbreak crisis, 1,383 power backup have been created. 161 ICU ambulances and 576 of 108-ambulances are in the service," he said. 

Tauktae approaching

Curently located over east central Arabian Sea coast off Mumbai, Tauktae moved north, north-westwards with a speed of about 18 kmph in the past 6 hours and lay centred at 0230 hours IST on Monday, 17th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 18.0°N and longitude 71.7°E, about 360 km north-northwest of Panjim-Goa, 170 km south-southwest of Mumbai, 350 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat), 310 km south-southeast of Diu and 900 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and "reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during early hours of 18th May as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a maximum sustained surface wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph," said the forecast.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

In addition, the forecast included the details of other indicators as below:

(i) Rainfall:

• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May.
• South Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over south Konkan & Goa and adjoining Ghat areas on 17th May.
• North Konkan: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from today afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Diu and southern most Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu & south Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18th May.
• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18th& heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 150–160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase becoming 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph from the forenoon of 17th May.
• Gale winds speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing along & off south Maharashtra –Goa and adjoining Karnataka coasts, 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast during next 12 hours. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17th morning till 18th morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph is prevailing over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts. It is likely to gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 120 -140 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmedabad, Botad, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi, Kheda districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Surendranagar, districts from 17th midnight till 18th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Prevailing high to very high sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal over northeast Arabian Sea from 17th morning till 18th May noon and improve gradually thereafter.
• Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off south Maharashtra–Goa coasts during next 12 hours and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17th midnight, till 18th May forenoon and improve gradually thereafter.

(iv)Storm surge warning

• Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas, about 3 meters over Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch, Anand, southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall. 

(v) Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea till 18th May.
• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

(B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Kheda and interior parts of Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested: The forecast further advised people and local administration to take up evacuation and monitoring measures. 

• Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

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