US President Donald Trump loves to generalise even though it is not the right way to approach international relations. In Saudi Arabia, where Trump made his first foreign visit after coming to power in January, the US president made remarks that were generalisations at best but lacked substance.
Trump said, while targeting Iran, that Tehran has been responsible for stocking fire in various countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Again, he said among the victims of terror were countries like India, China, Russia and Australia besides the US and Europe.
Indian media elated but how much US will back Trump's words in reality?
Understandably, the Indian media was overwhelmed by the fact that the world's most powerful man showed 'empathy' towards the country. It was also elated that Trump asked every country not to allow terrorists find safe havens in their territories. The target was understood to be Pakistan.
Now, hearing an America president echoing its own sentiments is something Indians will relish. But how much emphasis Trump really gave on India's challenges alone by taking its name with many others? If it is just another general remark to substantiate the point that terror is truly a global threat today, then is there really anything to cheer about for the Indian establishment?
USA's hard ploys against Pakistan haven't yielded much results
To feel convinced about Trump's words for India, one has to see if the US is really taking the challenges emanating from Pakistan too seriously. But one feels afraid Washington's ploys against Pakistan over the years haven't really delivered the punch and there is every possibility of the Trump Administration reversing the policy of Barack Obama, who had put all the eggs in India's basket to counter the Chinese influence in Asia.
US needs Pak for Afghanistan; it also needs to pull Islamabad away from China
Trump hasn't really taken any strong stance vis-a-vis Pakistan after storming to power and was also "pleased" to meet Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Riyadh. With Pakistan unable to rein in the militants and also leaning towards China, thanks to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, it is highly likely that Washington would desist from putting more pressure on Islamabad. For if the not-so-strong civilian administration of the country reaches a breaking point and the country implodes, it will be a threat to the entire world's stability and not just South Asia.
The US must have also understood by now that no strategy – hard or soft – has worked in changing Pakistan's core policies and after the Obama administration's prolonged pursuit to put Islamabad under check, the current regime could bring a change in the outlook, both as a measure to undo Obama's legacy as well as try new things to allure Pakistan to return to its orbit, dumping the Chinese.
Current US Defence Secretary James Mattis has been known to be pro-Pakistan
That imposing sanctions on Pakistan might not be an effective measure was hinted at by James Mattis, Trump's defense secretary, in the recent past. It can also be mentioned here that Mattis was the man who had maintained Washington's ties with Pakistan's military top brass towards the end of Obama's first term when relations between the two countries were low, the reasons being the murder of CIA contractor Raymond Davis in Lahore and the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan's territory. He has also spoken in favour of consistent security assistance for Pakistan.
There is also very little possibility of Pak dealing sternly with Haqqani Network & Afghan Taliban
Pakistan's proximity to Afghanistan where the US is really struggling over the last few years makes it indispensable for Washington's interests. It seriously requires Pakistan to rein in the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban but the latter is unlikely to oblige, given their utility as Pakistan's offence against adverse external milieu – in India or Afghanistan.
Obama's modest gestures towards India has made the latter an important player in Afghanistan's internal issues and that will make Pakistan even more adamant to continue backing the elements to safeguard its own interests.
All in all, it is one thing to hear Trump empathising with India and completely another to expect his administration taking solid penalising steps against Islamabad to help India get rid of the perennial threat of terrorism. Hopefully, India's media will observe the entire theatre before arriving at a conclusion.
