Small COVID clusters hinting at fourth wave in India; Centre must take cues from int'l countries [here's why]

In the past week, the rising cases of Covid have pretty much been parallel to the increasingly declining Covid protocols at public places. On Friday morning, 18 more tested positive for Covid at IIT Madras taking the tally of the institute to 30. The sharp increase in the number of those affected at the institute called for the intervention of the authorities.

While the Health Secretary J Radhakrishnan termed the spread as a small cluster, however, at a media briefing he also said that those who did not wear masks in public places will be penalised Rs 500, with the district collectors being asked to monitor and implement the instructions.

"We have instructed them (IIT) to isolate those who have given their samples until we get their results. Thermal and temperature checks are being not just done at the entrance but also inside the campus. When required, we are taking measures to shift the infected to the King Institute of Preventive Medicine and Research," he said during the media interaction.

The officials from the institute said that those infected are said to be stable and since they were vaccinated, only mild symptoms are being experienced by them.

Apart from Karnataka, Delhi has also issued orders on the wearing of masks. Those without masks will face a fine of Rs 500. Delhi also registered over 600 cases on Tuesday. Apart from Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have also issued similar orders, making masks mandatory.

Meanwhile, in India

By mid-March, India was recording its steadily declining Covid numbers. Standing at somewhere over 2,000 after two long years. Cities like Mumbai had been recording daily cases in two-digits and zero fatalities for many days at a stretch. The sense of confidence was quicker to pervade than the sense of fear or Covid protocols ever will be.

The desperation to return to normalcy is reflected in every public sphere. Finally, in the first week of April, India recorded its lowest ever tally of fewer than 1,000 cases in two years, reaching down to the lowest of 796 cases on April 12.

Almost one week later, the graph has already turned and India, especially the bell-weather states of Maharashtra and Delhi, started showing a reverse trend. As per a source from the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG), Omicron sub-lineage BA.2.12 was detected in several samples sequenced from the national Capital. The source also added that some other sub-variants could also be behind the surge. Unfortunately, like in the earlier waves, Delhi and Maharashtra have been registering a worrying spike in the number of cases.

Is a fourth wave imminent?

In an interview with ANI, Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, who has served as the head scientist for Epidemiology and Communicable Disease at ICMR, said the recent increase in Covid cases is unlikely to be the fourth wave though. "I don't think this is the fourth wave. The world continues to witness BA.2 variant affect people across the world. Some of us have misunderstood the mandatory use of a mask. They think it is withdrawn means no fear of acquiring infection," Which is also why he strongly advocated the use of face masks.

It was widely reported that IIT Kanpur had predicted a fourth wave in July. However, the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur clarified that they had not forecast another wave of Covid-19 and it was an independent study done by a team of researchers from their Department of Mathematics and Statistics who had prepared a mathematical model and the same was not peer reviewed.

The belief and predictions of a fourth wave are largely dependent on how the new variants play. "There's a possibility that new variants of Omicron are emerging. Many samples were sequenced at ILBS. I think there's 8 variants of Omicron, which one is the dominating variant, we'll know soon," said Dr SK Sarin, Director, Institute of Liver & Biliary Sciences, on Delhi Covid cases surge, reported the ANI.

Should India take cues from the world?

Globally, the emergence of the XE variant driving the spark in cases has further fuelled concerns of the fourth wave in India. Since the beginning of March, rising cases across the world have led to anxious speculations in India. In the middle of March, China put millions of residents of its southern city of Shenzhen into a lockdown for a week, until recently when as many as 44 Chinese cities were either under a partial or full lockdown. Despite 'Zero Covid Policy', China recorded over 30,000 cases on Wednesday.

In the United States, the CDC said that BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron and its sub-lineage BA.2.12.1 is estimated to make up more than a staggering 90% of COVID variants. While the overall numbers of Covid cases have dropped suddenly since its record highs logged in January, Covid infections have been rising particularly in states like New York and Connecticut. The US reported 68, 781 new cases on Wednesday, according to the John Hopkins Covid tracker. Meanwhile, in India, as Covid cases rise, Delhi Government has announced free booster doses and mandatory masking. The Capital logged 965 fresh cases on Thursday.