Predicting the Sensex for the next day is in itself a challenge. After all, stock markets both follow and defy logic. No wonder, then, that brokerages and financial services firms that predict Sensex targets end up embarrassed when their estimates go way off the mark.
The Sensex target for December 2015, as predicted by analysts, ranges between 26,900 and 32,500, with some downgrading their targets after estimating that the 30-scrip benchmark index would hit 33,000 by the end of calendar year 2015.
A lot has changed after these predictions were made and revised, and it's time to see how near or far they are from their targets, with less than 45 days to go for 31 December, 2015.
Here is a look at what they said:
Deutsche Bank: The German bank in May this year had said the S&P BSE Sensex would hit 33,000, only to revise it to 31,000 within a month citing "absence of positive environment for foreign inflows and earnings cuts".
HSBC: The bank had estimated in April 2015 that the Sensex would hit 30,100 by December, on the basis of "a recovery in the capex cycle in India, as well as a pick-up in macro-economic indicators, and higher government spending in areas such as roads and railroads". But within a month, it downgraded its target to 26,900, attributing it to headwinds such as "softer earnings in the near-term" and "delayed reform".
Morgan Stanley: It stuck to its 32,500 target and reiterated it in May this year. Ridham Desai, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley India, in an interview, said he was "steadfastly bullish" and the correction witnessed during May was a "super opportunity for people to buy stocks".
In June, he had said an improvement in growth and a fall in inflation were "good for equities".
CLSA: In September this year, the Asian brokerage and investment group had revised its December 2015 target down to 30,000 from 31,800 citing "a cut in earnings estimates over the next couple of years".
Citi: The foreign brokerage cut its December 2015 Sensex target to 32,200 in August this year from the 33,000 target it had given in December 2014.
It will be interesting to see where the Sensex ends on 31 December, 2015. On the last working day in 2014, the Sensex had closed at 27,499.42.
On 19 November, the benchmark index closed at 25,841.92, with a gain of 359 points, or 1.41%.
