BJP is gunning for victory in the upcoming Assembly polls, while Aam Aadmi Party is leaving no stone unturned to turn the tables around and Congress vows to take lead. But it all boils down to which political party wins the maximum seats and bets are being placed on the likely outcome of the Assembly polls in two important states.
As per the early trends in Satta Bazaar, which is an illegal betting market, BJP is the favourite for Uttar Pradesh and AAP is dominant in Punjab. The Hindu reports that the Satta Bazaar trends favour BJP for UP, which means highest bets are placed on the ruling party to retain power in India's largest state. But the trends also show that the number of seats will be lower as compared to 2017 assembly elections.
Similarly, there are high bets predicting a hung assembly in Punjab, with the Aam Aadmi Party securing the largest number of seats. Both the state elections are to be held in February and March, but bets are already flowing in. As per the report, the expected turnover of the bets placed on this election season is going to be a whopping Rs 50,000 crore.
Bookies are expecting BJP to corner over 250 seats, which will be well past the halfway mark to form the government. However, the same party had won with 312 out of 403 seats. Bookies have noted that the recent farmer protests in both states are likely reasons for the party to dip in favour.
What are the bets: Money matters
As per the report, the bookies will pay 20 paise over an above every Rupee bet on BJP winning at least 200 seats in the UP. If the bet is placed on BJP winning 222 seats, the payout will be Rs 1.15 over a Rupee.
Bets are also placed on Samajwadi Party, which if it wins 125 seats, bookies are willing to pay Rs 1.40 over every Rupee. If the bet is on SP winning 110 seats, the payout is lower at 35 paise over a rupee.
"These are early trends and the final outcome could swing depending on what the BJP does in the next two months that will also see the announcement of the Union Budget on February 1. You cannot write-off PM Modi's trait in surprising the voters and swinging their opinion in BJP's favour," a source close to the top bookies was quoted as saying by the paper.
In case of Punjab, bookies predict Congress and AAP to win a maximum of 40 seats each and minimum of 25 seats each. The bookies also say the odds might change with more clarity on BJP's tie-up with former Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh's party.
Punjab has a total of 117 seats in the Assembly. Bets placed on AAP for 25 seats will get 35 paise over a rupee but if the bet is for 40 seats, the payout is Rs 1.15 over every rupee. Similarly, Congress winning 25 seats has a payout of 45 paise and Rs 1.35 over a rupee if the bet is for 40 seats.
