Days after some researchers of the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur predicted the fourth wave of COVID-19 in June this year, the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday clarified that there is no such forecast by the said institute about the deadly virus.
The ministry, however, made it clear that authorities are closely monitoring the COVID-19 trajectory globally and in the country to face any threat in the future.
"IIT Kanpur has clarified that they have not forecasted the fourth wave of COVID-19. It is an independent study done by a team of researchers from their Department of Mathematics and Statistics who have prepared a mathematical model and submitted the same to a preprint server for the experts to comment on. The same is not peer-reviewed", Minister of State in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare Dr. Bharati Pravin Pawar said.
During the first week of this month, some researchers of IIT Kanpur predicted the fourth wave of Covid-19 may hit the country between July and August this year.
As per reports, a study by researchers of IIT Kanpur suggested that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August.
"The study led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Department of Mathematics and Statistics shows that the severity of the fourth wave will depend on the emergence of a possible new coronavirus variant, and vaccination status across the country", reports said.
Technique adopted by IIT researchers repeatedly failed to give reliable results: Minister
In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday, the MoS said, "modelling studies are based on a certain set of inputs either based on real-world scenarios or approximations of those inputs that are not available (which may vary in accuracy according to the technique used)".
"Often these studies involve, taking a relatively small actual sample and extrapolate the result to the entire population. While this may achieve near accurate results for a small homogenous country/region, such techniques have failed repeatedly to give reliable results for a large, diverse population", the minister stated.
Health Ministry is closely monitoring COVID trajectory to face any situation.
Given the emergence of variants of the COVID-19 virus with variable transmissibility and other public health implications, the Union Ministry of Health is closely following the COVID-19 trajectory globally and in the country along with various expert committees.
"In addition, the network of Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) of laboratories is undertaking whole-genome sequencing of samples for timely detection of mutant variants of virus", the minister said.
Steps taken to face any threat of the fourth wave
- Union Ministry of Health provides requisite technical and financial support to States/UTs to enhance preparedness and response capacities against COVID-19 and other public health emergencies.
- Funding support has been provided to States/UTs for health system strengthening to meet any exigency due to the resurgence of cases in the country through the National Health Mission, State Disaster Response Funds (SDRF), and Emergency COVID-19 Response and Preparedness packages.
- Regular review meetings are undertaken with all relevant stakeholders including subject experts and states to review preparedness and response measures to address the COVID-19 pandemic following the five-fold strategy of test-tack-treat-vaccinate and adherence to COVID appropriate behaviour.
