PM Modi visits Germany when US & Europe are drifting apart; for India, it's challenge & opportunity

Just three days after completing three years in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a four-nation trip which included, besides Germany, Spain, France and Russia. It is PM Modi's second visit to Germany and the final one before the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, heads for the national elections in September with a bid to win yet another term.

Modi said in a Facebook post before leaving the Indian shores: "India and Germany are large democracies, major economies and important players in regional and global affairs. Our strategic partnership is based on democratic values and commitment to an open, inclusive and rules-based global order. Germany is a valuable partner in our development initiatives and German competencies fit well with my vision for India's transformation."

Also read: PM Narendra Modi departs on his 4-nation tour: Trade, investment, terrorism to be key issues

The visit is crucial for two reasons.

India and EU have bigger business interests to meet after China's OBOR show

One, though PM Modi is expected to convince the Germans to come forward and invest in India and give the country's economy a boost, the still-to-succeed India-European Union (EU) free-trade agreement (FTA) could pose hurdles. Germany has backed resumption of negotiations for India-EU FTA ahead of Modi's visit, especially after both the EU and India expressed reservations over China's much-vaunted One Belt One Road (OBOR) summit held recently in Beijing.

While India did not attend the summit, the EU stopped short of signing up the trade declaration of what German Ambassador to India Martin Ney called a "China-centred trade enhancement system". India had terminated bilateral investment treaties with the EU countries saying they were not properly negotiated and also went against India's interests.

India came up with a new model investment treaty but individual European countries were not be gained by that since they have a collective unit called the EU in place. With a framework for investment not in place and delay over FTA discussions since Europe is caught up with the Brexit at the moment, India is likely to find stumbling blocks in its pursuit to get closer to the EU and find an alternative platform to the OBOR. It may be mentioned here that the EU is one of the largest trading partners of India.

With Trump and Merkel showing uneasy signs, India will have both challenge and opportunity

The second reason is more of a global one. While Modi said the strategic partnership of India and Germany is based on democratic values and commitment to an open, inclusive and rules-based world order, the latest rift between the US and Europe, especially Germany, says that the prevailing world order is neither open nor inclusive and doesn't abide by rules much.

India needs the support of the West on key issues like fighting terrorism and dealing with climate change but with the trans-Atlantic alliance showing serious signs of weakness and two of the West's biggest powers – the US and UK – preferring protectionist stances, a united front to take on the terrorists and climate change has taken a serious beating. For India, it is both a challenge as well as an opportunity.

It is a challenge because the USA's retreat from global politics will make India's quest to get the West's support in its diplomatic clashes with Pakistan and China more difficult. Donald Trump's USA has virtually no stand on any foreign policy issue now, as it has been seen from his recent remarks and activities, and now with him showing more signs of befriending Russia and not democracies like Germany, no one really knows how much reliable will be the US from here on. The entire world is guessing and India is no exception.

India will have a major opportunity on climate change issue

India's opportunity, however, lies in the issue of climate change. With the US almost deciding to pull out of the Paris climate agreement and disagreeing with the G7 group over a host of issues and European powerhouse Germany asking Europe to write its own destiny, New Delhi along with Beijing has a golden opportunity to rise as a leader on the issue of climate change.

Both India and China have produced impressive records in dealing with climate change and would meet the 'slowing down emissions' targets they had set for themselves at the 2015 summit.

The remarkable developments shown by both India and China have also put the Trump administration's unrealistic stance on the issue under even a bigger question.

India has a fresh story to script with both Europe and the US in the post-Barack Obama years. Modi is likely to meet Trump in June, the same month he winds up his Europe tour. It's an opportunity for Modi to carve out a bigger space for India in international relations. Can he do it?