Global rating agency Moody's Investors Service has trimmed its growth estimate for India to 7% in the current fiscal year ending March 2016 from a previous forecast of 7.5%, citing lower-than-expected monsoon rainfall witnessed so far across the country.
However, the agency has kept its projection of 7.5% growth in the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the next fiscal year (2016-17) unchanged. Moody's also warned that the growth may slow down due to slower pace of reforms than anticipated.
The government has failed to pass landmark reforms such as the land acquisition bill and goods and services tax (GST) bill in the recently concluded monsoon session of Parliament, as opposition parties disrupted the functioning of both the Houses demanding action against External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and others over the Lalit Modi row.
"One main risk to our forecast is that the pace of reforms slows significantly as consensus behind the need for reform weakens once the least controversial aspects of the government's plan have been implemented," Moody's said in a report to The Economic Times.
It said that India's growth will benefit from a decline in commodity prices in the past one year. Crude oil prices have halved since June last year, pushing down the inflation rate to record lows.
India will also be "little affected" by the slowing demand in the world's second largest economy, China, it said.
The rating agency expects the Chinese economy to post a growth of 6.8% in the calendar year 2015 and 6.5% in the next year.
"The recent stock market correction is unlikely to have a significant impact on China's GDP growth. The depreciation of the renminbi so far will also not have any marked economic impact," it said.
Last week, the Chinese authorities had devalued yuan to boost its slowing exports. Meanwhile, the stock markets had witnessed highly volatile sessions last month, as investors took profits on weakening sentiment.
