Market week: Key factors likely to increase post-budget volatility

Traders are likely to be risk-averse in the first market session on Monday, February 4, as the stand-in finance minister Piyush Goyal presented feel-good interim budget 2019 provoked some edge-of-the-seat tension because of extreme market volatility.

The markets should trade range bound, now that traders have priced in the feel-good factor the budget provided.

The corporate world is right in the thick of an earnings season with some key market movers expected to announce their December quarter results during the week.

The week is also expecting a key Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting giving the markets cause to be cautious.

The benchmark indices ended up on the day of the budget on Friday, after Goyal announced steps to boost consumer spending. However, the indices sharply slid off the day's highs amid concerns over the confusing fiscal math.

After rising 521 points (1.44 per cent) in intra-day trade, Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex ended just 213 points or 0.6 per cent higher at 36,778. The index's upward momentum was helped by stocks in the automobile, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and realty sectors.

National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty 50 swung wildly on Friday, February 1, as parliament's budget session progressed. It hit a high of 10,983 and slumped to the red to touch a low of 10,813 points. Nifty 50 recovered marginally to end in the green closing at 10,893, marking a change of 63 points or 0.58 per cent.

Banking stocks that account for a fourth of the index weightage fell sharply amid a spike in government bond yields that hit investor sentiment.

Market observers attributed the early rally to the initial euphoria from the slew of announcements. Motilal Oswal, chairman and managing director of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said that announcements such as the cut in income tax should help corporate earnings growth.

Friday's gainers like Hero Moto Corp and Maruti Suzuki India that rose 7.5 per cent and 5 per cent respectively could consolidate their gains during the week, but traders could expect some profit-taking.

The badly battered banking stocks including YES Bank, State Bank of India, and ICICI Bank may remain under further pressure, according to observers.

Concerns over extra borrowing could haunt the market through the week as the massive election-year sops begin to weigh on the fiscal balance. However, the market could find traction in the hope of increased consumer spending from the Rs 75,000-crore outlay for farm sector relief and the rebate declared for middle-income earners by freeing incomes up to Rs 5 lakh from the income-tax.

Central bank meeting

The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later in the week assumes significance after the interim budget contains steps to boost consumption demand. If the central bank cuts repo rates and CRR to ease pressure on banks the market will react positively.

Earnings

Coal India (Buy Back), IDBI Bank, IRB Infrastructure, Indian Overseas Bank and Exide Industries will be announcing quarterly results on Monday (February 4).

Tech Mahindra, GAIL, HPCL, ACC, BHEL, Punjab National Bank, Oriental Bank of Commerce, IDFC First Bank, DLF, Apollo Tyres, Tata Global and Dish TV will be announcing their results on February 5.

Lupin, Cipla, Siemens, Adani Ports, Adani Power, JSW Steel, and Allahabad Bank, will come out with quarterly results statements on February 6.

February 7 will see the December quarter results of Tata Motors, Aurobindo Pharma, Britannia, Adani Enterprises, Coffee Day, Cadila Healthcare, and Arvind and Grasim.

Mahindra & Mahindra, NHPC, BPCL, and Engineers India will come out with their results on February 8.

FII activity

Foreign investors have turned net buyers and this will augur well for the market. FIIs have bought about Rs 1,300-crore worth of shares so far, according to reports.