Talks are underway that the Narendra Modi government at the Centre is likely to undertake a Cabinet reshuffle soon and this could be the last before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, hence raising its significance by far.There are also rumours that Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis could head for the Centre.
In March, following the BJP's good show in the state civic polls, Fadnavis had not ruled out completely the possibility of him shifting base to the capital calling himself a "true soldier of the party". However, on Thursday, the man said he is not moving to the Centre as of now and would continue as the CM till the call came from Delhi.
State leaders shunted to Centre: BJP's emerging pattern
Whether Fadnavis, who took over as the first BJP chief minister of Maharashtra three years ago, eventually becomes a Cabinet member and take up a ludicrous ministerial job is for time to tell but the idea of promoting the man reveals a growing pattern in Modi's BJP.
Manohar Parrikar was also made to move to the Centre from the chief ministerial position of Goa and he took up the plum post of the defence minister. But he could not serve long since the BJP felt his need back in Goa where things started looking down.
The saffron party failed to win a majority in the Assembly elections in the state earlier this year but was unfortunate to return to power because of the Congres's callousness.
Parrikar was brought back as the chief minister of a coalition government which is headed by the BJP since the saffron party could not risk its prospects in the state and gave an SOS call to its biggest leader there to take up the reigns again.
Could Fadnavis's fate go Parrikar's way?
Could the same happen with Fadnavis, who has emerged as the party's face in Maharashtra in the last three years? Shifting him to Delhi will create a void in the state where the BJP doesn't have a majority of its own and the frenemy Shiv Sena always in the lookout to topple the senior NDA ally. With the next Assembly elections in Maharashtra just two years away, will disturbing Fadnavis's leadership be a right move? Even if he is moved, will the Sena allow his successor to breathe easy?
One suspects the BJP has a paucity of frontline leaders even if it is running the show well under the hierarchical leadership of Modi and Amit Shah. It has a dilemma of manning important posts at both the Centre and states, particularly when it is on an expansion drive. The NDA government doesn't have full-time ministers for important portfolios which proves its predicament.
Cabinet reshuffle Modi's weapon to woo states but is that serving well?
The Cabinet reshuffles have become Modi's weapon to woo the states but at the same time, he has a greater risk of exposing the state leaderships by ferrying top local leaders to the Centre. But Parrikar's case showed such decisions are not foolproof. Even in UP, the BJP picked an MP as its chief minister and his inexperience as an administrator has already started taking a toll.
What is was in Vajpayee-Advani era
This situation is quite contradictory to what it was during the era of Atal Behari Vajpayee and Lal Krishna Advani. With the two patriarchs settled at the helm, the BJP could focus more on the grassroots and we saw long-serving chief ministers in the Modis, Shivraj Singh Chouhans, Raman Singhs and Parrikars. There was also a set of leaders like Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Pramod Mahajan and Venkaiah Naidu at the Centre, serving second-fiddle to the two towering figures.
Now, in the post Vajpayee-Advani era, the saffron party has to balance both sides. And since it is dominating both at the Centre and winning more and more states, it is finding it difficult to produce leaders easily. But even if it is finding it uncomfortable, the BJP should desist from shunting state leaders to and from the Centre. That way, it will not earn much stability and could also squander the advantages by disturbing the local leaderships.
