In the closely watched Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, most of the exit polls have predicted a hung assembly with the National Conference-Congress alliance close to the majority number.
The C Voter exit poll has forecasted that the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance is set to come closest to the majority mark. The alliance is projected to win between 40 and 48 seats in the 90-member assembly, placing them within striking distance of the 46 seats required for an outright majority.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is expected to perform strongly in the Jammu region, is predicted to secure the second-largest share of seats.
According to the poll, the BJP is likely to win between 27 and 32 seats overall, solidifying its status as a dominant force in Jammu, even though it may fall short of competing for leadership in the entire Union Territory.
Mehbooba Mufti's Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which previously formed a coalition government with the BJP, is expected to see a more modest outcome this time around. The exit poll predicts that the PDP will win between 6 and 12 seats, reflecting a significant decline in its political influence.
The Kashmir Valley, which holds 47 seats, appears to be leaning heavily in favor of the Congress-NC alliance. The poll estimates that the alliance could win between 29 and 33 seats in the Valley, leaving little room for the BJP, which is predicted to win at most 0-1 seat in the region. The PDP, meanwhile, is projected to secure 6-10 seats in Kashmir, while independent candidates are expected to win a similar range of 6-10 seats.
In Jammu, the political landscape looks markedly different. The C Voter poll predicts the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the region, winning between 27 and 31 seats. The Congress-NC alliance is expected to secure between 11 and 15 seats in Jammu, while the PDP is forecasted to win only 0-2 seats.
Meanwhile, another exit poll conducted by People's Pulse presents a slightly different picture, predicting that the Congress-NC alliance could achieve an outright majority in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly by winning between 46 and 50 seats. According to this poll, the BJP would trail in second place, securing 23-27 seats.
These exit polls suggest a fragmented political landscape, with the Congress-NC alliance positioned to lead but falling just short of a guaranteed majority, while the BJP maintains a stronghold in Jammu. The PDP, which once held considerable sway, appears to be in decline, and the role of independents could prove critical in shaping the final outcome of the elections.
NC-Cong alliance to emerge as the single largest group.
The exit polls suggested that the Congress-Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) alliance is positioned to emerge as the dominant force, securing the largest share of seats among the contesting parties.
This coalition, long viewed as a significant player in Jammu and Kashmir politics, appears to have garnered substantial support across both the Kashmir Valley and parts of Jammu, though not enough to govern independently without forming broader alliances or seeking external support.
The fractured nature of the projected results hints at a diverse political landscape, where regional concerns, local leadership, and longstanding political alignments continue to play a critical role. In the absence of a clear majority, coalition politics and post-election negotiations are likely to dominate the political discourse as parties scramble to form a stable government.
This outcome, while unsurprising given the complexity of the region's political dynamics, underscores the significant challenges ahead in governing a region with deeply entrenched political, social, and regional divisions. The final results are expected to lead to a period of intense political negotiations as both the Congress-JKNC alliance and other parties look to either consolidate power or explore new alliances.
