Infosys, a Sensex heavyweight, seems to be headed for tough times on the stock markets after declaring Q4 results and giving a revenue guidance in the range of 6.5-8.5 percent in constant currency terms for 2017-18. Brokerages are not so gung-ho about the company's prospects, with one of them downgrading the stock sharply from its current levels.
On Monday, Infosys shares were trading at Rs 926 apiece on the BSE at around 2.42 pm, close to its 52-week low of Rs 900 and far away from its April 18, 2016 closing price of Rs 1,238.
For the full-year 2016-17, revenues rose 8.3 percent in constant currency terms to $10,208 million while net profit came in at $2,140 million. In rupee terms, FY2017 revenues grew 9.7 percent YoY to Rs 68,484 crore and net profit is up 6.4 percent to Rs 14,353 crore. The final dividend is Rs 14.75 per equity share.
Brokerage Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities (NBIE) downgraded Infosys share price to Rs 887, translating into a loss of 4.3 percent from the Rs 927 for the share as at 2.11 pm on the BSE on Monday.
"While Infosys gave a lower-than-street-expectation guidance of 6.5 percent-8.5 percent constant currency (CC) revenue growth (6.1 percent-8.1 percent in USD terms) and 23 percent-25 percent EBIT margin, we believe there is downside risk to both. Prior to 4QFY17, our FY18 estimates were 5.2 percent USD revenue growth and 22.8 percent EBIT margin," NBIE said in its note on Monday.
The brokerage cited two reasons for its pessimistic view of the company's performance in FY2018. "Not only has total large deal TCV (total contract value) has been 10 percent lower in FY17 versus FY16, the quarterly average is only ~$800mn where as a desirable number for Infosys' size should be >$1bn and ~$1.5bn for industry leading growth," it said.
Further, the BFSI vertical, which contributes about 33 percent of the total revenues, is expected to grow only in the second half of the fiscal, presuming deregulation in the financial services sector in the US.
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. (MOSL) has a target price of Rs 1,200 for Infosys. In its analysis of the company's financial performance, the brokerage said the deals won last fiscal were not so encouraging. "While the guidance implies a gradual pick-up in momentum, lower deal wins in FY17 (USD3.4b; - 10 percent YoY) and multiple pockets of issues restrict confidence around immediate broad-based recovery, which would be a necessary trigger for valuations," MOSL said.
A similar share projection has been made by IDBI Capital Markets & Securities in its note on Monday, hovering less-than-expected Q4 top-line and weak guidance for the current fiscal. "We factor Q4 miss and cut FY18 revenue (US$)/EPS by 1.4/4.3 percent. We introduce FY19 financials and now value Infosys at 15x FY19E with a new TP of Rs 1,100 (vs. Rs 1,215 earlier)," the brokerage said.
