China is currently the most powerful and menacing authoritarian regime, posing seismic challenges to the liberal international order. Beijing has been taking advantage of its economic and military power to intimidate smaller countries, like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
In Southeast Asia, China has repeatedly bent the rules in the South China Sea while violating its neighbor states' sovereign rights in those waters. Even middle powers like Australia and India have become the targets of Beijing's wolf-warrior diplomacy for failing to kowtow to the Chinese authorities.
Up to this point, a war between democracy versus autocracy is far from unrealistic. The Quad powers, including the US, Japan, India, and Australia, recently called for efforts to advance the Indo-Pacific region "free from coercion." The grouping's statement could be interpreted as "a thinly veiled swipe" at Beijing's expansion.
No liberal democracies could stay back from the rise of authoritarian regimes without undergoing existential threats, such as the demise of fundamental rights and the erosion of liberal norms. Hence, democracies should step up cooperation to address the dire threat posed by democracy's opponents. Otherwise, "the authoritarian model will prevail," warned the 2022 report by Freedom House.
On principle, Taiwan and India are well-positioned to strengthen ties as they both share democratic values and have sought to address pressures intensified by authoritarian regimes. Additionally, there is a growing synergy in India's Act East Policy and Taiwan's New Southbound Policy.
Clear and consistent: India's Policy on Taiwan
"India has committed to a "clear and consistent" policy on Taiwan, insisting on promoting interactions "in areas of trade, investment, tourism, culture, education, and other such people-to-people exchanges." In recent years, the Indian government has made no reference to the "One-China policy" in its official documents, including joint statements with China, portraying a nuanced change in India's perceptions of China, and to a lesser extent, China-Taiwan relations. In January, Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that Taiwan and India shared similar values on democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and underlined the two sides are like-minded and trusted partners, which could together cooperate on the building of a "democratic supply chain."
"India has committed to a "clear and consistent" policy on Taiwan, insisting on promoting interactions "in areas of trade, investment, tourism, culture, education and other such people-to-people exchanges."
Taipei and New Delhi have enhanced economic ties by holding talks on a free-trade agreement and carving out a plan to set up a semiconductor hub by a Taiwanese firm in India. Currently, more than 120 Taiwanese manufacturers are operating in India, with a total investment of US$2.3 billion. Bilateral achievements include a signed cybersecurity cooperation pact and growing calls for a revamp of India's Taiwan policy among Indian scholars, former diplomats, and the general public. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan donated face masks to India to protect Indian frontline medical personnel, highlighting India as its "important and valued partner."
However, these positive movements could not hinder the fact that India has yet invested political efforts in institutionalizing its ties with Taiwan. Additionally, bilateral trade between Taiwan and India remains modest, totaling US$7.69 billion in 2021, a small fraction compared with US$117 billion in trade Taiwan accumulated with ASEAN the same year.
The bilateral trade between Taiwan and India was at US$7.69 billion in 2021.
As Taiwan's trade relationship with its partners is generally driven by investment, the humble proportion of total trade volume between India and Taiwan is largely due to low levels of investment and weak business linkages.
Taiwan's QUAD desire
Taiwanese Vice President William Lai has recently expressed Taiwan's desire to join the Quad in order to enhance Taiwan's status and seek strategic leverage for its security. Taiwan's determination happens when China has sought to "reunite" Taiwan and blatantly accelerated coercive actions over the island state's air and maritime space.
On March 7, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned against furthering Washington's ties with Taipei and underscored: "Taiwan will eventually return to the embrace of the motherland." And Taiwan's refusal to accept it as part of China will "ruin Taiwan's future," Wang claimed.
As some scholars consider India a "weakest link" in the Indo-Pacific grouping, India should be a bridge to facilitate Taiwan's quest to join the Quad. There are pragmatic reasons for this call.
"Taiwan and India shared similar values on democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and underlined the two sides are like-minded and trusted partners, which could together cooperate on the building of a "democratic supply chain." —Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu
First, gaining membership in the grouping could equip Taiwan with a democratic security framework utilized to strengthen Taipei's will to support its democratic fellows, and Taiwan would be more willing to back up India when coming to intimidations harbored by Beijing. Second, India needs to enhance its role as a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific. In the Biden administration's 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy, India and Taiwan have gained recognition as America's "leading regional partners," sharing the responsibility to buttress a free and open Indo-Pacific. Bringing Taiwan into the like-minded group is strategic in the sense that India's fellows in the Quad have increasingly vowed their support for Taiwan amid Beijing's hegemonic ambition. Third, India's support for Taiwan would demonstrate New Delhi's resolution to foster amity and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Deepening Taiwan's robust engagement with the Quad powers is a tipping point for a mutual accommodation of strategic interests between true partners in the region.
Taipei and New Delhi should strengthen bilateral relations amid geopolitical challenges by going beyond comfortable linkages, like educational and cultural ties. The Indian government should invest political capital to achieve a free trade agreement with Taiwan to boost bilateral trade and investment. Taiwanese representative in India Ge Baoxuan underlined complementary advantages in Taiwan-India relations but said that the current bilateral trade arrangement falls short of meeting the global supply chain shift, especially in the post-pandemic era. He further called for "an upgraded version of the bilateral investment agreement" because "the sooner the agreement is signed, the sooner [Taiwan and India] will see a leap forward in trade and investment."
To enhance the bilateral trade flow, the Tsai Ing-wen government should further raise awareness among Taiwanese entrepreneurs about the potential of the Indian market. Essentially, an advance in bilateral economic ties is within reach should both sides invest more political will.
Considering the aforementioned challenges and strategic gains, the Modi administration should formulate a calibrated foreign policy toward Taiwan rather than being at the mercy of China. More efforts from India to fix the "inconsistency and unpredictability" in its relationship with Taiwan could indicate New Delhi's desire to embrace a more vital role in the Indo-Pacific.
About the author(s):
Kuan-Ting Chen is the CEO of Taiwan NextGen Foundation, a think-tank working to make Taiwan more sustainable, diverse, and inclusive. He is also the host of Radio Taiwan International's podcast "Vision on China." He was the deputy spokesperson for Taipei City Hall, and a member of the National Security Council's staff.
Huynh Tam Sang (Ph.D.) is international relations lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities, research fellow at Taiwan NextGen Foundation, and nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum.
[views expressed are those of the author(s)]
