Political analysts and those either interested in or affected by politics knew it would be a tight contest in Himachal Pradesh.
A little more than three hours after the counting for Himachal Pradesh assembly seats began on Thursday, BJP seemed to be trailing behind. Congress party was leading in 35 seats, the halfway mark for the Assembly, while BJP was leading in 26 seats.
As for the rest, independent candidates who could play the role of government-makers or breakers, were leading in five. However, a few minutes before noon, the verdict was clear. Rebels cost BJP and Congress was set to come back, leading in 39 of the 68 seats.
Why numbers matter
The counting happened at 68 halls spread out across 59 centres throughout the state. On November 12, the state went to polls for 68 assembly seats and saw a voter turnout of around 75.6%. But the political landscape of the hilly state is far more complex than numbers imply.
While a lot more was at stake for CM Jairam Thakur in the current elections, but he has won his seat from Mandi leading by 36, 167 votes. The state is known to have a history of changing governments back and forth between Congress and BJP. While both parties had claimed victory even before the polling, the exit polls had largely predicted that BJP will most likely retain Himachal.
AAP enters
Lately debuting into Gujarat politics, the entry of AAP into Himachal Pradesh as the third stronghold made things more competitive. Besides AAP, parties like Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Communist Party of India (Marxist), Communist Party of India (CPI) and Rashtriya Devbhumi Party (RDP) were also in the fray.
Same time, last election
It must be noted that in the 2017 Assembly elections, the BJP formed its government in the state by winning 44 seats, while the Congress secured only 21 seats. Hoping to reverse the state's history of anti-incumbency wave. BJP had launched a fierce campaign in Himachal.
What cost the BJP?
Despite the party going all out in campaigning and exit polls predicting an edge in the neck-to-neck battle between the two parties, BJP lost its majority. But more than what cost BJP, it has been what worked for Congress. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra took charge of the campaign, cashing in on anti-incumbency wave. The issues like lack of employment, inflation, problems peculiar to apple-belt of Himachal, resentment towards Agniveer scheme all played a key role.
Now what? Who'll be the new CM?
Soon after noon, whispers as to who'll be the next CM started doing the rounds of editorial and opinion pieces as also political corridors. Pratibha Singh, who is the wife of late Virbhadra Singh, Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu and Mukesh Agnihotri, both from the Kangra region figure in the list of potential candidates.
Caste equations, important belt of Kangra, legacy of Virbhadra Singh and general loyalty towards Congress, all these factors will decide the next CM of Himachal.
