A few months ago, the Congress in Gujarat had a renewed hope that it would put the ruling BJP under some sort of competition. The saffron party has been in power in the state for two decades now and with Narendra Modi now a resident of New Delhi, the Congress's reasons to feel hopeful were not without a foundation.
But as the flood water gains height in the state at the moment, the grand old party's chances look more and more buried. The ruling party and the media have lashed out at the Congress for ferrying its MLAs to Bengaluru after six of them quit the party, alleging that the BJP was alluring its legislators with Rs 15 crore each.
The cross voting by Congress MLAs during the presidential elections, the exit of Shankersinh Vaghela and now the danger of stalwart Ahmed Patel losing the Rajya Sabha election because of the party's steep slide because of the resignations are dangerous signs for the grand old party.
If Patel eventually loses the election to the Upper House, it will not just be a routine electoral debacle for the Congress. It will also be a personal blow for party president Sonia Gandhi since Patel has been one of her closest lieutenants over the decades. If this Rajya Sabha election sees the end of the road for Ahmed Patel and beginning of the road for Amit Shah, the general to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it would indeed be a symbolic moment.
Patel's defeat will be ominous signs
Patel's defeat will put the Congress in a serious trouble for it would be seen as a loss of Sonia herself and in a way, convey that the Congress's top brass is not invincible, just like the rest of the party.
It will make the elections in Rae Bareli and Amethi during the 2019 battle extremely important for the observers. Will the Gandhis finally fall in that battle?
Coming back to Patel, reports said the man himself was not too keen to contest this election but did so only at Sonia's insistence. A defeat thus will mean a loss of face of the party president even though the Congress is doing all it can to shield her.
Madhusudan Mistry had perished in 2014 by taking on Modi
In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Rahul Gandhi's aide Madhusudan Mistry was fielded against the then BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in Vadodara but he went on to lose by a record margin of 5.7 lakh votes. His place of prominence in the Congress only faded in the days to come. A similar fate awaits Patel, a heavyweight of the Congress who stays away from the limelight, if he loses this election?
If Patel loses, the Congress's option of going back to Sonia whenever Rahul flops will be severely restricted. It will, in effect, dent the Gandhis' overall image as the powerhouse of the party. After the periphery, the Congress's core has started getting rattled and this is a reason enough to panic.
