The third wave of the Covid pandemic, primarily triggered by the Delta and Omicron variants of the pandemic has slowed down in India. However, a team of experts at IIT Kanpur who successfully predicted the second and third wave of the pandemic in the country believes that the fourth wave of Covid could hit the country on June 22, 2022.
IIT experts predict Covid fourth wave
According to IIT experts, the fourth wave of the pandemic which is expected to begin in India on June 22 will continue till October 24.
These experts noted that the severity of this wave will depend on various factors which include the emergence of new variants and the vaccination status of people. IIT experts also added that the devastating effect of the fourth wave will be also dependent on the number of people who receive booster doses of vaccine by June.
The statistical prediction made by these experts is now published in the pre-print journal MedRxiv.
According to researchers, the pandemic curve will reach a peak from August 15 to 31 and thereafter decline.
"The third wave was predicted for India using the concept of a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data of Zimbabwe, and when the third wave in India is finishing it is now clear that the forecast was almost correct. Motivated by the study, we investigated the forecasting of the fourth wave in India," wrote the researchers in their study report.
Bill Gates predicts the rise of a new pandemic
Meanwhile, Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist, Bill Gates has warned that humanity will soon face another pandemic.
While interacting with CNBC, Bill Gates predicted that the new pandemic will be triggered by a different pathogen, and not coronavirus.
"We'll have another pandemic. It will be a different pathogen next time. The chance of severe disease, which is mainly associated with being elderly and having obesity or diabetes, those risks are now dramatically reduced because of that infection exposure," said Gates.
