Despite strong efforts by top leaders, including the Prime Minister and Home Minister, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may face difficulties in the upcoming elections in Karnataka, going by opinion polls.
The final ABP-C-Voter survey predicts that the Congress party will likely win 110-122 seats out of 224, while the BJP is expected to secure only 73-85 seats, a significant drop from the 104 seats it won in 2018.
The Congress is also poised to secure the highest vote share of 40.2%, an increase from 38% in the last elections. However, some surveys predict a different outcome, such as Zee News-Matrize and Suvarna News 24x7, which suggest that the BJP may emerge as the single-largest party.
Regional news channels also indicate that the Congress is in the lead, but a hung house is possible. The voting will take place on May 10, and the results will be declared on May 13.
Notwithstanding an intense fightback by top leaders including PM Modi and Home minister Amit Shah, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may find itself on a sticky wicket in Karnataka with opinion polls suggesting that the Congress may go one-up against its opponent in the elections scheduled for May 10.
Here's a detailed look:
According to the ABP-C-Voter opinion poll, Congress is still leading the race in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly elections, despite a strong campaign by the BJP in the last leg. The poll predicts that the Congress will likely win between 110 to 122 seats out of the 224-member assembly, which is below the required number of 113 seats to form a simple majority government.
The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to win between 73 and 85 seats, which is a significant drop from the 104 seats it won in the 2018 Assembly elections. The Congress is also poised to have the highest vote share of 40.2%, up from 38% in the previous polls, while the BJP is likely to retain its vote share of 36%.
The Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to win 21-29 seats with a 16.1% vote share, indicating a decrease from the 37 seats it won in 2018 with around 18% of the votes.
Another opinion poll conducted by Kannada outlet Eedina predicts that the Congress is heading for a comfortable majority with 132-140 seats, while the BJP is expected to win 57-65 seats with a vote share of 33%.
While most pre-poll surveys place the Congress in the lead, some outliers like Zee News-Matrize and Suvarna News 24×7 surveys claim that the BJP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party.
Several regional news channels also conducted pre-poll surveys, with most placing Congress in the lead and the BJP as a close second. However, none of the surveys gave either party a clear majority, predicting a possible hung House in Karnataka.
In the 2018 elections, BJP emerged as the single-largest party with 104 seats, followed by Congress (78) and JD(S) with 37 seats. Congress and JD(S) joined hands to form a coalition government but BJP finally formed a government with defected MLAs a year later.
