Don't throw away masks, Israel study nods to another COVID outbreak this summer

A recent study conducted by a team of Israeli researchers has found that the Omicron subvariants may take the edge off in the next few months, but a new outbreak of Delta or a different coronavirus strain could emerge this summer.

The findings, published in the journal Science of the Total Environment last week, imply that whereas Delta wiped out the variants that came before it, Omicron has not wiped out the lethal form that could reappear.

The resurgence of Covid strains

During the study, researchers from Israel's Ben-Gurion University of the Negev (BGU) created sensitive arrays that can distinguish between variants in wastewater. According to the researchers, the coronavirus is still active even though PCR and quick testing of people drops.

The researchers noticed a "disturbing interaction" between the Omicron and Delta variations in the city of Beer-Sheva in Israel between December 2021 and January 2022. The researchers also created a model that forecasts Omicron will burn out, whereas Delta will simply bide its time.

Professor Ariel Kushmaro from BGU said in a statement that there are a lot of factors involved, but this model indicates that there could be another outbreak of Delta or another coronavirus strain.

They found that, until now, whenever a new dominant variety developed, it quickly overtook its predecessor after a brief period of parallel evolution.

A new wave of Covid awaits? 

They mentioned that the results of wastewater detection indicated a cryptic Delta circulation even with higher levels of Omicron, in contrast to predicted dynamics.

The investigators also noted that "according to the developed model, it can be expected that the Omicron levels will decrease until eliminated, while the Delta variant will maintain its cryptic circulation."

"If this comes to pass, the mentioned cryptic circulation may result in the reemergence of a Delta morbidity wave or in the possible generation of a new threatening variant,"

Researchers, including BGU's Karin Yaniv, agree that Omicron is rapidly fanning over the world, with high rates of morbidity.

The dynamics of the Omicron form have demonstrated different characteristics than the Delta variant, which was previously thought to be the main variety of concern in most countries, they said.