American professor Helmut Norpoth has predicted that the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, will be the next president of the United States. Norpoth's model has successfully predicted all the White House race results for the past 100 years, except one.
"I think he (Trump) was the strongest candidate in the primaries and that he will prevail," Helmut Norpoth told the New York Post. Norpoth is a political science professor at the State University of New York Stony Brook.
Norpoth came up with a model which, if applied retroactively for earlier presidential elections since 1912, would have successfully predicted all the White House winners, except for the year 2000 when George W. Bush won against Al Gore.
The professor's model follows which candidates do well in the initial primaries and caucuses and concludes that the candidate with the strongest performance in the early stages win the presidential elections. Although Norpoth had predicted the winner for this election earlier in the year following the primaries, there has been a lot of developments on the political ground since then. However, the professor still maintains that Trump would win the elections.
"The model predicted a Trump win in February and nothing has changed since then. Whatever happens in the real world doesn't affect the model," Norpoth added.
Although the sociology professor's model has stood true in the past, it does not consider the change in the political landscape, which could be a game-changer in this year's election. Donald Trump's tape recording of him bragging about sexual assault on women has changed the entire scenario of the 2016 US elections.
Ever since the release of his tape recording last month, several women have come up alleging that he sexually assaulted them, some of them claiming that he did so during the time he was married to Melania Trump. The recent developments have made several Republicans distance themselves from their presidential nominee and there has been a notable drop for his chances in prediction polls.
