Automobile companies will be declaring their volume sales data for December — the first full month after demonetisation — in less than a week. The broad consensus among brokerages suggests that companies are likely to witness weak numbers.
Domestic car sales in November for Honda, Renault, Ford, Hyundai
Car makers in India include Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (MSIL), Hyundai Motor, Honda, Renault India, Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), Tata Motors and Ford Motors, while the major players in the two-wheeler space include Hero Motocorp (HMCL), Suzuki Motors, Honda Scooter and Motorcycle India, Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Co.
Manufacturers in the commercial vehicle segment include Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors and Eicher Motors.
In November, passenger cars posted a growth of less than 0.50 percent, while the two-wheeler (2W) segment registered 5.85 percent fall, when compared to sales in November 2015.
The projections for December 2016 are mixed, though the broad picture indicates prolonged pain for the multi-billion dollar industry. At around 12 noon, share prices of auto companies were trading in a narrow range, while the sectoral index BSE Auto was marginally up at 0.11 percent.
MSIL was up 0.39 percent to Rs 5,251, Tata Motors was down 0.19 percent to Rs 462, M&M almost flat to Rs 1,172, Ashok Leyland was down 0.32 percent to Rs 78, Hero Motocorp at Rs 3,013 and Bajaj Auto at Rs 2,630.
Here is the summary of estimates for December auto sales by brokerage houses/analysts
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd.
The real impact of demonetization on auto sales volumes is expected to be felt in December-16. Post our interaction with various dealers, we expect M&M in the PV space, Hero in 2Ws and Ashok Leyland in CVs to be hit the most. MSIL is relatively well placed on account of its waiting period for Baleno and Brezza.
In the PV industry, we expect MSIL's volumes to grow 4% YoY in December-16, primarily led by growth in compact UVs and supported by Baleno.
MSIL is relatively well placed compared to peers, given that Brezza and Baleno account for ~16% of sales and export volumes for 10% of total volumes. This insulates 25-27% of its sales volumes. Tata Motors too is relatively well placed on account of the waiting period for Tiago.
However, M&M's PV sales are expected to fall 25% YoY.
2Ws are likely to be worst hit on account of demonetisation.
We estimate HMCL volumes to decline 31% YoY in December-16 as its rural exposure is relatively high compared to peers.
Volumes of Bajaj Auto are expected to decline 18% YoY as both domestic sales and exports are likely to decline.
TVS is relatively well placed as a decline in other segments is likely to be partially offset by moped growth.
With freight movement taking a hit post demonetisation, CV manufacturers were badly hit. We expect a 29% YoY decline in volumes of Ashok Leyland, while Tata Motors is expected to see a 25% fall in the CV space. We expect HCV volumes to decline more than LCV volumes.
Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India) Private Limited
We expect December wholesales to be impacted by a sharp decline in retail sales due to demonetisation, and inventory de-stocking by OEMs to clear off 2016 model year inventory. Our channel checks indicate that rural retails are impacted more (double-digit decline) compared with the urban segment, due to the liquidity crunch.
Normalised availability of cash may happen by Feb-Mar17, post which we expect growth to pick up.
The medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment is likely to be impacted most, due to a sharp plunge in retails. We expect a ~30% yoy drop in industry volumes.
We expect the passenger vehicle (PV) industry to decline ~11% y-y. The annual maintenance shutdown at Maruti Suzuki and a limited wholesale push to clear off older inventory should keep volumes muted. Weak rural demand is likely to affect MM UV wholesale, which is expected to drop 30% yoy.
Two-wheeler (2W) industry growth is also likely to decline ~12% yoy. This should be driven largely by Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN, Neutral), which is likely to see sharp ~30% decline due to poor offtake in rural segment.
