Covid third wave: Government scientist predicts possible impact on India [details]

After wreaking havoc in all nooks of the nation, the second wave of Covid in India has now started waning. Amid relief, medical experts believe that a potential third wave of the pandemic could hit the country soon. Several study reports including the one released by IIT Kanpur have predicted that the third wave in the country could begin either in September or October. And now, a scientist who is part of the government panel has predicted the time in which the third wave of the pandemic could peak in India. 

Covid third wave in India

Professor Manindra Agarwal, who works with the panel tasked with modeling Covid cases suggested that the third wave of coronavirus could peak in India between October and November if appropriate behavior is not followed. 

According to Agarwal who is working with the Sutra Model, the mathematical projection of the Covid-19 trajectory, the third wave peak could see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge of the pandemic. The scientist also warned that the presence of new strains of the virus during the third wave could drastically elevate the number of daily cases. 

"We have created three scenarios. One is an optimistic one. In this, we assume that life goes back to normal by August, and there is no new mutant. The second is the intermediate one. In this, we assume that vaccination is 20% less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions. The third is a pessimistic one. This has one assumption different from the intermediate one: a new, 25% more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not delta+, which is not more infectious than delta)," said Agarwal in a series of tweets. 

Will the third wave of Covid just fade away like a ripple?

Agarwal revealed that the third wave of Covid could be just a ripple if no fast-spreading variants of Covid attack people. 

"If there is no significantly faster spreading mutant, the third wave will be a ripple. And if there is such a mutant, the third wave will be comparable to the first one. However, if there is an immunity-escape mutant, all the above scenarios will be invalid," added Agarwal. 

A few days back, AIIMS director Dr Randeep Guleria had claimed that the third wave of coronavirus in the country is inevitable. The medical expert also blamed the general public for not following adequate safety protocols that could trigger the deadly third wave in the nation.