Congress to form govt in K'taka, BJP to perform its worst: Pre-poll survey shakes up parties, BJP in dismissal mode

The survey, conducted in three parts, also puts forward the reasons for respondent's voting choices, which it says have been affected by issues of corruption, price rise and unemployment

Anti-incumbency wave, allegations of corruption, inflation and the rich-poor divide may have rocked the boat for BJP-led Basavaraj Bommai government in Karnataka.

As per a pre-poll survey by Kannada outlet Eedina, Congress appears to be headed for a clear-cut majority in the state, comfortably crossing the 113-seat benchmark in the upcoming Karnataka Assembly Elections. The assembly elections are to be held in a single phase on May 10, while the counting will take place on May 13.

What the survey predicts?

More than predicting a comfortable majority for the INC, the survey paints a grim picture for the BJP which is expected to not cross 65 seats and win anywhere between 57-65 seats with a vote share of 33%. It must be noted that in the last assembly elections in 2018, the BJP secured for itself 104 seats. It came to power 14 months after elections in 2019 by toppling the alliance of Congress-Janata Dal(Secular) government.

As for Congress, the survey predicts anywhere between 132-140 seats for the political party with a vote share of 43%. If true, this could be Congress' best performance in the last three decades, added the survey. The survey also predicts one of the worst performances for JD(S) too. Political analysts are attributing the change to a sense of disillusionment caused by economic decline in the wake of the pandemic.

The survey

A total of 41,169 people were randomly selected from the electoral rolls and interviewed at their residences from March 3 to April 21 for the survey, it said. In a press release issued on April 28, Edina said, "In terms of regions, the survey shows that the Congress may sweep the northern regions of Hyderabad Karnataka and Mumbai Karnataka, while the BJP may improve its vote share, but not win many seats. The JD(S) is also likely to lose seats in South Karnataka to the Congress."

Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai addressing the inauguration of — Representative image. (Photo:IANS)IANS

The survey is part 3 of Eedina's survey report, the first two parts emphasizing that more than half of respondents felt that the Bommai government should not be given another chance.

Strong perceptions and allegations of corruption tipped the scale in favour of Congress which has been trying hard to woo the very poor. The second part of the survey also said that at least 68% of the respondents said that issue of corruption actually affects their voting decision. After corruption, the respondents said price rise and unemployment will also affect their voting choice.

BJP goes on dismissing spree

Using words like 'bogus' and 'cooked up', BJP leaders and ministers have been dismissing the survey on social media. In one of the tweets by Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar, he called the survey, "a bogus poll."

BJP National secretary BL Santhosh said the survey was 'cooked up' and the one conducted to please their masters. Reacting to his tweet, political activist Yogendra Yadav said, "It's not astonishing that those who don't find truth palatable blame the cooks (imagined ones in this case)." Former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan was among those, the poll found favour in.