Indian markets are awaiting global cues for the momentum swing of the bull run to continue. On the domestic front, major uncertainties that dampened the drive like state elections and government trouble with the Reserve Bank of India are over for now.
Although the ruling nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party lost all the five states that went to polls, for now, the market can return to its business based on the strong economic numbers.
One of the top signs of the rudiments of a rally taking shape is that Nifty50 reclaimed the 10,800-resistance level on Friday. It closed the day at 10,805.45, seen as a strong base to take the momentum forward.
The market opened on a muted note with the RBI board meeting under the new governor Shaktikanta Das later in the day, and the key indices in fact dipped during intraday trading.
Nifty fell to 10,754 as soon as the market opened but recovered to an intraday high of 10,815, which it almost made twice during the day. Market observers believe the bull run that started once the market turned from this month's low of 10,488 on December 10 is still holding good after touching the year's high of 18,883, marked on December 3, which is reckoned as a considerable resistance. If it overcomes that resistance, the market will see further upside beyond 11,000. Nifty's has been quite a remarkable recovery from the intra-year low of 10,030 that it touched on October 26.
Both wholesale and retail inflation numbers have fallen, making it safe to assume that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) under its new government-friendly chief will have enough elbow room to tweak interest rates to ensure market liquidity.
Retail inflation fell to its lowest monthly rate since June 2017 in November to 2.33 percent on an annual basis from 3.38 percent in October. Wholesale inflation fell to an annualized 4.64 percent in November from 5.28 percent in the previous month.
Moreover, as the former bureaucrat has indicated that there would no room for conflict with the Finance Ministry on any issue. Das, a former economic affairs secretary, is seen as a government man as opposed to his predecessor Urjit Patel, the differences with whom Finance Minister Arun Jaitley vocalized a number of times.
A meeting with public sector banks also confirmed the general market assessment of the central bank governor's approach to key issues seen as sticking points during the tenure of Patel.
On a weekly basis, the S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8 percent while the Nifty50 witnessed a 1.05 percent rise, market reports said. The broader market outperformed as the BSE Midcap index rose 3.2 percent while the S&P BSE Small-cap index closed 2.8 percent higher. The fact that the Indian indices bucked the global trend, especially the Asian markets, is seen as a sign of the general optimism derived from domestic events.
However, experts warn traders to watch for any breach of 200-day moving average below 10,750 that could call back the bears for a downside target of 10,560.
