Calling the uncertainty Brexit could unfold as a process and not merely an event, research agency CRISIL noted the event may not affect India's macroeconomic factor like the GDP growth in 2017. However, intermittent mini-frights could be expected but not major disruptions as the process unwraps, it indicated.
"We retain our forecast at 7.9 percent with agriculture as the swing factor," said Crisil, noting that timely monsoons across the country were more important for its growth.
On trade with India, the downside was not going to be significant, it added. The UK contributes 3 percent of merchandise exports to India and 2 percent of the country's total external trade (import and export). However, India's trade competency was driven more by the value rupee holds to the pound versus its other competitive currencies hold against the same British currency.
However, the research organisation said the rupee will see volatility in the coming weeks, while it may depreciate (from earlier estimate) by 50 paisa to Rs. 66.50 to a dollar as of March 2017.
As UK prepares to leave the European Union, over a process that could stretch for 2 years given other geo political developments in the Europe and elsewhere in the world, the global economy is bound to slow down, it added.
As growth slows and domestic consumption increases (especially with India's economy growing strong), India's current account deficit (CAD) would increase 20 basis points to 1.3 percent of the GDP. However, over medium term, India's stable outlook and higher growth prospects will make it an attractive destination for investment. With the U.S. federal bank slamming its brakes on increasing interest rate, and the stimuli driven liquidity and policies flooding different economies, India stands to gain, it noted.
Though India's equity and currency markets too witnessed shocks from the Brexit referendum, the debt market remained stable in India with 10-year government securities yield remaining at 7.48 percent after opening at 7.50 percent on Brexit day. Yields from other major economies fell more than India, indicating attractiveness of foreign investors in Indian bonds in near term. Also the U.S Fed postponing rate hike would put downward pressure on yield, said the report.
