It is a rather uneasy wait for Prime Minister Narendra Modi here in the heart of western Uttar Pradesh. His rally in Meerut on February 4 can very well be the one that would seal or kill the deal for the BJP.
This is the part of Uttar Pradesh where the Jats decide the winners in 55 seats. The BJP won in 47 of these 55 constituencies in the 2014 general elections. And as in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the youngsters of the community — making around 25-30% — want to give Modi a chance, as of now.
The elderly in the population are still staunch loyalists of Lok Dal and will vote for Chaudhary Charan Singh's son, Ajit Singh. But every passing day keeps the BJP on tenterhooks, with the Jat stir for reservations rearing its head once again in neighbouring Haryana.
Narendra Modi has to keep the agitation numb in Haryana, otherwise everything goes up in a puff of smoke for him here in western Uttar Pradesh.
"The lack of use of force is, as of now, giving us a feeling that Modi is making an effort to engage with the Jat agitators in Haryana," Devendra Tomar, a 43-year-old lawyer at the local court in Baghpat, the heart of Lok Dal, told International Business Times.
"It seems something will work out this time," he continues.
But maybe Modi is just buying time and wants this crucial first phase to pass in Uttar Pradesh? Voters punch the EVMs here on February 11.
"Well, if that happens we would be the ones to be blamed," says Tomar. "But a lesson will then be taught in 2019. As of now, if everything remains smooth the Jat youth will vote for the BJP."
The major reason for the swing in BJP's favour is that the so-called Jat leader, Ajit Singh, is near clueless.
"He should have come out in support of reservation," Jaiveer Singh, a farmer from Soop village, 20 kilometre from Baghpat told International Business Times.
"The Jat youth is completely done with him, though I still cannot talk like this about the 'Chota Chaudhary' in front of my 70-year-old father and even older tau [father's elder brother]."
Jaiveer goes on in the same vein about Jayant Singh, Charan Singh's grandson. According to the young Jats, all that he has learnt from his father is how not to do anything.
So they are all looking at Modi at this moment and it is a brilliant time for him to strike gold. But the prime minister will have to come out and speak on the matter of reservation for Jats. And that is easier said than done.
With RSS leader Manmohan Vaidya stirring up the reservation debate a few days back at the Jaipur Literature Festival, advocating a phase-out, things have become choppy for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, exactly the way they got muddied before the Bihar elections last year when RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat vouched for bringing an end to reservation.
BJP president Amit Shah's recent comments against reservation may also tilt the balance towards Mayawati.
Western Uttar Pradesh is also the region where Mayawati does good and the reservation issue seems to be preparing the pitch in her favour once again. Many Jats have turned her supporters after 2003.
Many Jat farmers, like Prahlad Singh Rathi of Datiyana village in Muzaffarnagar district, laud her quite fearlessly: "She is the one who got all the bylanes in our village cemented and ensured that the village got at least eight hours of electricity supply every day."
"The sugarcane mill owners were more responsive and gave our dues more promptly when Mayawati was the CM."
Many feel that western UP has always suffered under the rule of the Samajwadi Party, maybe because Mulayam is apologetic about usurping the gains created by his mentor, Chaudhary Charan Singh, and so keeps shying away from this region.
Another point of view, which has its own merit, is that Jats see Mulayam as one who back-stabbed the Chaudhary.
So it is going to be a Mayawati's Dalit-plus-Muslim-equation again in this part of UP, which would vie for the decisive floating chunk of 25-30 percent of youth that is disenchanted from Lokdal/Ajit Singh.
On the other side is Modi's Bania-plus-Brahmin-plus the same decisive floating chunk of the Jat youth gamesmanship.
Things are teetering at near equal between the two right now, but with the BJP manifesto offering to waive off all the loans for farmers and the Union budget aspiring to pump in a phenomenal amount in the rural sector, Modi has the right shot in his armoury.
Now much will depend on what he does or doesn't say on Jat reservation on February 4. Devendra, Jaiveer and Prahlad plan to be there in Meerut to hear him.
