Looking ahead to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, major political parties are gearing up to prove their mettle in upcoming assembly elections across India as the resounding victory of Congress over BJP has given immense confidence to the opposition parties at the national level.
Barring Mizoram and Telangana, both national parties will go head on in three major state assembly elections -- Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. In Telangana, it is likely to be a three-cornered contest.
The Congress, in particular, has much to prove after suffering several defeats in state assembly and general elections since 2014. Conversely, the BJP hopes to secure victory in the majority of upcoming assembly elections, thereby cementing its position as a leading political force.
Currently, the Congress holds power in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, and Karnataka, while the party shares power in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Jharkhand as part of coalition alliances.
Here are the states where assembly elections will be held before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections:
1. Rajasthan: The current assembly of 200 members will be dissolved on January 14, 2024, with elections likely to be held before the end of this year.
The state has traditionally been a Congress stronghold, but the BJP has made significant inroads in the state, particularly in the 2013 assembly elections when it won a majority. However, in the 2018 assembly elections, Congress returned to power with a clear majority, defeating the BJP.
The state is currently governed by the Congress party, with Ashok Gehlot as the chief minister. However, there have been reports of internal power struggles within the party, with Sachin Pilot, the former Deputy Chief Minister, leading a faction that has been at odds with Gehlot. The situation escalated in 2020 when Pilot and several of his supporters left the state and camped in Haryana, leading to a political crisis for the Gehlot government.
The situation was ultimately resolved when the Congress high command intervened and reached a compromise with Pilot, who was reinstated as Deputy Chief Minister. However, Pilot has again raised the banner of revolt when he took out a 5-day Padyatra seeking probe into former BJP chief minister Vasundhara Raje's government as promised in the last elections.
In addition to the internal power struggles, Rajasthan politics is also influenced by caste equations, with the dominant Jat community playing a significant role in the state's politics. The state is also home to a significant number of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, who have traditionally been seen as Congress supporters.
The upcoming elections will be closely watched, as they will be an indication of the parties' strength ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
2. Madhya Pradesh: Elections for the 230-member legislative assembly are scheduled to be held in or before November 2023. The current assembly is set to dissolve on January 6, 2024.
The political landscape of Madhya Pradesh has been dominated by two major parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). The BJP has been in power in the state for several years, replacing the Congress.
In the 2018 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the Congress party emerged victorious, winning 114 seats in the 230-member assembly. Kamal Nath of the Congress party was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the state. However, his tenure was short-lived, as the BJP was able to form a government in March 2020 after several Congress MLAs under Jyotiraditya Scindia defected to the BJP.
The political situation in Madhya Pradesh remains dynamic, with the BJP and Congress constantly jostling for power. The upcoming assembly elections in the state, which are scheduled to be held in or before November 2023, will be closely watched by political analysts and voters alike.
3. Chhattisgarh: The state will elect 90 members for the assembly in or before November 2023, with the current assembly set to dissolve on January 3, 2024.
Chhattisgarh politics have been dominated by the Congress and the BJP, while the ruling Congress party has been in power in Chhattisgarh since 2018. The current Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel, has a vast experience spanning over three decades.
Baghel is known to have launched several welfare schemes for farmers, women, and other marginalized sections of society besides taking up improvement in the state's healthcare and education infrastructure.
4. Telangana: The 119-member assembly's tenure will end on January 16, 2024, and elections are expected to take place in or before December 2023.
The Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) party, founded in 2001, has been in power since 2014 with K. Chandrashekar Rao, also known as KCR, as the Chief Minister and the founder of the TRS party, which played a key role in the formation of the state of Telangana, a longstanding demand of the people of the region.
Renamed Rashtra Samithi (BRS) now, the party enjoys immense support among the voters after its successful implementation of numerous welfare schemes, such as the Rythu Bandhu scheme that provides financial assistance to farmers, and the Kalyana Lakshmi and Shaadi Mubarak schemes that provide financial assistance to brides from poor families.
Congress remains the main opposition party in Telangana but the BJP is trying to make inroads in the state and has been successful in winning a few seats in the previous elections. In a triangular contest, analysts say the ruling BRS is likely to benefit.
5. Mizoram: The current 40-member assembly will dissolve on December 17, 2023, with elections to be held in or before November-December 2023.
In the 2018 assembly elections, the Mizo National Front (MNF) won a majority of 26 seats and formed the government in the state, with Zoramthanga as the chief minister. The Congress, which had been in power since 2008, was reduced to just 5 seats, while the BJP failed to win any seats in the state.
In each of these states, political parties have the chance to showcase their strengths and win the support of voters ahead of the critical 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
